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Astronomy & science · first seen 7 Sep, updated 7 Sep

Astronomers long expected the Milky Way and Andromeda to collide in about 4.5 billion years — but a 2025 study in Nature Astronomy, using Hubble and Gaia data, estimated only a roughly 50–50 chance of the galaxies merging within the next 10 billion years.

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The 2025 estimate depended on uncertain motions and neighbouring galaxies. A 2026 follow-up put the merger probability higher, showing why the forecast remains sensitive to the measurements. The post Astronomers long expected the Milky Way…

Summary from SpaceDaily.

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  1. SpaceDaily
    Astronomers long expected the Milky Way and Andromeda to collide in about 4.5 billion years — but a 2025 study in Nature Astronomy, using Hubble and Gaia data, estimated only a roughly 50–50 chance of the galaxies merging within the next 10 billion years.